At the Victoria Peak of Hong Kong, just 2 minutes walk from the tourist-popular cable car station, there is a red house. Obviously, the owner of this house must be very rich, because the land alone costs at least a few million US dollars. Recently I passed by the house and saw 4 cars parked outside it. All of them were covered by cloths, but from their shapes and exposed parts I could recognize a Lamborghini Murcielago, a Porsche 997 Carrera S and a Porsche Cayenne Turbo. This portfolio should satisfy the needs of anybody at anytime and anywhere, so if the zillionaire need a fourth car, I suppose it should be something really special, such as a Bugatti Veyron. Surprisingly, it is a brand-new Nissan GT-R. It sounds at odds to this group of prestige cars.
10 years ago, a Skyline GT-R would be considered as disgraceful for a zillionaire. It was the kind of cars that boy racers modified and raced on streets during midnight. The new GT-R has really changed the game. Rich people are willing to buy it because they know it is the fastest car - or at least one of the fastest cars - in the real world regardless of price. It could beat any existing Ferrari and Lamborghini road cars in Nurburgring Nordschleife. It could beat Porsche 911 GT2, let alone 911 Turbo, at the backyard of the German sports car maker. At the same time, it offers the practicality and user friendliness that used to be reserved for Porsche. What an achievement Nissan has made !
When the rich people started buying GT-R, it means Zuffenhausen’s alarm is ringing. Porsche experienced a strong challenge from Japanese coupes during the late 1980s to mid-1990s, when its sales slumped from 50,000 to 15,000 units (also as a result of economy recession). Therefore this time I believe it must take the latest Nissan challenger very seriously. If it lose once more, its reputation will be seriously damaged. You know, unlike Ferrari or Aston Martin, Porsche sells cars not on style or fancy image but their real world ability. It is always proud of superior Nurburgring lap times to its costier Italian rivals. Now Nissan beats it in the same way, so you can imagine how hard it feels and how embarrassing it is. Unquestionably, a strike back is a must. The question is how to do it.
The current 911 Turbo lapped Nurburgring at a best time of 7:40, some 11 seconds slower than GT-R. Porsche will give it a mid-life update next year. By that time it will get more power by means of direct fuel injection and faster gearshifts by PDK gearbox. Considering the recently facelifted Carrera S (also got direct injection and PDK) is 12 seconds faster than its predecessor in Nurburgring, it is still possible for the new 911 Turbo to beat the GT-R’s best time of 7:29. But that will need some more works from Weissach and a bit of luck to help Walter Rohrl.
However, we expect more from the car that costs twice the price of GT-R. A Porsche is a Porsche. It will not be honourable to beat a Nissan narrowly in its backyard test track. Moreover, by the time the new 911 Turbo arrive, Nissan will have introduced GT-R V-spec, which boost more power and less weight. It will undoubtedly raise the bar again. What can Porsche do ? This must be a big headache to the engineers in Weissach.
One thing Weissach must review is the chassis dynamics of 911. Rear-engined layout seemed to serve the 911 well during the past 45 years, but when the competition get intense, its inherent shortcomings become obvious. According to many comparison tests, the 911 Turbo is not as stable as GT-R when pushing hard in corners. It produces more pitch and its tail tends to swing sideway, because a lot of the weight concentrates on the rear overhang. The GT-R has superior stability to let it put power effectively down the road, that is why most road tests found it runs slower than 911 Turbo in straight line but eventually returns faster lap time in test circuits.
It is not a secret that the best handling Porsche in its current lineup is not the 911 of any kind, but the mid-engined Cayman S. Today it can still limit the power and development budget of the Cayman line to protect the 911. It may do the same to Audi R8 in the future, assuming it can successfully take full control of Volkswagen group and get rid of Martin Winterkorn. However, the competitions from the East are not so easy to handle. Beside GT-R, there will be Lexus LF-A and a successor to Honda NSX, both are front-mid-engined and even better balanced than the GT-R.
Sooner or later Porsche will need to rethink the future of 911. It is hard to imagine the 911 would switch to mid-engined or front-engined. If it do so, it won’t be a 911 anymore. The only thing Porsche can think is to reposition the 911. If its rear-engined layout was designed to let it carry more people or luggage, then let it serve as a grand tourer rather than an ultimate performance sports car. In other words, let it be what 928 used to be, and let Cayman (or its successor) be the new 911. Only this way could keep Porsche save from the Japanese attack.
In the foreseeable future, however, I don’t see Porsche would take my advice. 911 is still a big money maker to Porsche and it would be too risky to change it fundamentally. In short term, Porsche may try to trim weight from the rear axle of the car or move the engine a little forward. Play with suspension tuning and electronics to narrow the gap from GT-R, then use bigger power to compensate for its inferior chassis balance. Can such evolutionary development solve its fundamental problems ?
At the time of writing, it is pouring outside. I have just seen a silver 911 passed through the road outside my window. 45 years ago, it would be a nightmare to drive a 911 under such weather condition. Not anymore today. Evolutionary development does help. If the 911 can survive the Japanese attacks until its rivals extinct, it might just keep going in the current form. We know Nissan is actually losing money on GT-R (despite of what Carlos Ghosn said earlier). We believe Lexus LF-A and the next NSX will be in the same situation. If the Japanese could not find a workable business case to sustain the breed of these cars, 911 may still emerge as the ultimate winner.
Mark Wan